“Will Sanchez exhaust the legislature?” a friend asks me, someone who, personally, cares as much as I do about the future of the president of the Government. Even less, because he is a foreigner. So, in our daily reality, the one of toast and daily coffee at the usual bar, we both have little at stake, to be honest. But we speculate a lot, why deny it.
Of course, we care about what happens in the heights of the Government if we talk about taxes, inflation, employment, pensions, and other “trivialities” that affect those of us who go through life without a yacht to dock at the nearest port.
But there is also politics, that of professional politicians, you know, those who appear on TV and no one can understand. They really have a lot at stake. And we have to keep voting for them, each in our own country, even if they don’t deserve it. It’s worse to live in a dictatorship, and we are sensible and responsible citizens who still think this can be regenerated.
So I return to the question and find myself thinking before answering. “Will Sanchez exhaust the legislature?” I repeat to myself. The answer is that exhausting the legislature and holding elections in July 2027 no longer strictly depends on him, although I am sure he would like to reach July… and beyond.
But it is his partners who, in the end, and according to their own electoral interests, will decide the fate of the only Spanish president who has managed to unite a parliamentary majority of eight parties, fundamentally nationalists (even from the right) and from “the left of the left” of the PSOE (those who were communists in other times, to understand each other).
And here we find ourselves with a panorama of pure national tragicomedy after four years in which the ribs of the governmental ship have creaked, sinisterly and constantly, but have never broken. No member of that strange crew has ever been interested and surely still is not interested in the agreement breaking. They all know that, without a government like this, their influence in national politics is nullified. Another thing is that circumstances force them.
The circumstances are called, in the coming weeks: 1) consequences of the registration of the PSOE headquarters, with the Cerdán-Abalos case in the background; 2) indictment of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and the Plus Ultra case; 3) trial against Sanchez’s “little brother” in the Badajoz Court this week; and 4) summons of Begoña Gómez to testify before the judge for various alleged corrupt practices in the coming days. Too many fronts for one man.
With the calendar of appearances in hand, all parties —especially Basque and Catalan— have started calculating when it is convenient for them to hold elections. And the calculators are smoking because what fits them on one side, falls apart on the other.
Formally, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) is already asking for early elections… quietly. They do not want the PSOE to drag them down in its debacle, but they also do not want to be seen as the ones responsible for Sanchez’s fall and be candidates to integrate the ‘fascosphere’. On the other hand, facing their own regional and local elections, the peneuvistas (traditional right and Basque Catholicism of all time) fear the most that EH Bildu (far-left independence) will overtake them. And the polls say that this could happen.
The PNV has been controlling power in the Basque Country for over 40 years. Losing it would be a catastrophe for many of its members, who would be left without work, in addition to their political influence in Madrid evaporating. So let’s summarize what the PNV wants: to advance the elections, perhaps to the end of this year… or not? It depends. Ugh, what a mess!
In EH Bildu, there is no reason to support a motion of censure, call for early elections, or even suggest that maybe something should be “done” about corruption. Their case best defines “political happiness”: they do not have to do anything to be influential. In summary, EH Bildu are ‘fans’: Sanchez ‘forever’.
Let’s see what they want in Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC). Here things also seem clear. ERC is doing well with Sanchez in Madrid and the PSC in the Generalitat. Their spokesperson has already said that the president must exhaust the legislature but must fulfill what was agreed with them before calling elections. Summary: ERC wants to “make the most of the remaining time” to ask for what is theirs. That said, keeping Sanchez.
To complete the Catalan issue, the guys/girls from Carles Puigdemont already said that they did not care about Sanchez’s future, that he had deceived them several times and that they did not trust him. But they do not even imagine supporting a motion of censure against him. After all, he has not sent the Civil Guard to arrest Puigdemont. And their main concern now is the far-right Silvia Orriols, who may take a good part of their voters. The vote of Junts: wait, criticize, and see.
The rest of the nationalist political forces —Bloque Nacionalista Galego (BNG) and Coalición Canaria— that support the Sanchez Government with their only respective deputies enjoy a magnificent irrelevant position, so it is better if they do not show up in this maelstrom. Strategy: keep your head down, man!
And we come to Sumar and Unidas Podemos. These two are really in a mess. Sumar is still in the Government. The political balancing act of Sumar’s ministers is commendable. It is a constant “yes, but no” that does not leave them in a very good place. But they are reflecting what those voters from the “left of the left” want: more firmness against corruption but without concessions to the right. Something that at this moment, if it is not impossible, is simply impossible (I did not make a mistake in the phrase, no).
Somewhat more emphatic are from Unidas Podemos, a bit freer since they left Sumar, although they are not firing cannon shots against Ferraz. They are more critical than Yolanda Díaz’s, with whom they shared a bed until not long ago, but they either do not want to or cannot go overboard, that is not known. It must be the ‘Sanchez effect?’, that powerful anesthetic that has left the “left of the left” in a nostalgic fainting spell with no end in sight. Result: A doctor should come, it is urgent!
We do not consider in this article, in case you are wondering, what PP, Vox, or UPN might ask for because 1) we already know; and 2) it does not matter because they will not be listened to.
Then, returning to the original question —remember: “Will Sanchez exhaust the legislature?”—, unless the PNV supports a motion of censure —it is not enough to abstain in the votes or even vote against— or that Pedro Sanchez receives an offer he cannot refuse as Trump’s advisor, for example, you can bet there will be elections in 2027, not before… Unless the polls say that the PNV will lose by a landslide in the next elections in the Basque Country or the president’s electoral calculator discovers a better date.
How curious! 1,200 words later, we have not reached any conclusion. My friend pays the bill and we agree that next time we will speculate better.
