They haven’t finished with the Iranian issue and they are already thinking —in Washington— about what to do with a Cuba that is once again looming as part of the ‘gringo’ backyard. The case is too serious. But it would be hilarious if we saw it as that of the rich and capricious child who, ten minutes after opening Christmas presents, is already bored with the toys. Let’s translate: “Now I leave Iran, which bores me because I am not winning, and I am going to start with this Cuba thing, let’s see how it goes.”
I’m not saying that the war in the Middle East is going to end in a false closure. I don’t believe there will be an American withdrawal. That would be the height of absurdity and a complete ridicule for the still leading world power. We will see if the ongoing negotiations with Iran finally lead us to something lasting and if a protracted conflict can be avoided. But when that happens, Trump’s interest will be —is already— in the Caribbean, on an island where —following his favorite phrase— he expects that “we are going to make a lot of money”.
I have always thought that Trump’s world is like a huge room full of toys. The problem is that he has already played with all of them. And he is bored with them. The only thing that still doesn’t bore him is being the President of the United States because he can push many buttons and see what happens. Sometimes it will come out “famine”, other times “war”, “oil”, “narcos”, “money”, “bomb”, “Putin”, “summit” or “casino”. Like in the slot machines he had in Atlantic City. The uncertainty of the game is exciting.
But, as I say, Iran already bores him. Trump likes to win quickly. And this game promised. Overthrowing a regime full of turbaned priests who speak strangely and live in a desert was going to be a matter of “two or three days”, especially if their weapons are not at the level of the “most powerful army in the world”, as he also proclaimed.
The absurd stubbornness of the Tehran regime has ruined everything! Why do they insist on resisting? If it is logical that he wins, the invincible American Caesar. At least that’s what it says on the box where the game comes: “Beat the ayatollahs with your hypermuscular marines!“. Well, not for now, so let’s go to Cuba which is closer and seems easier.
For a kleptocrat, money is everything, or almost. The ‘Uncle Scrooge’ feeling of having a pool full of bills is only surpassed by winning the game of geopolitics. Conquering, in one way or another, a country. Imposing one’s own will against the resistance of the other. And the ‘Maduro effect’ must have encouraged the occupant of the White House to think that the Caribbean is easier than Iran. And, what luck, Cuba is in the Caribbean! Well, we will see what happens. Anything is possible, but we have already seen miscalculations in previous occasions.
The question in this case is, what has changed? After weeks, even months, in which rumors about the presence in Havana of a negotiating team —from the CIA itself!— became reality, everything indicated that both parties could reach an agreement —of course with a large section dedicated to “making money”— to lift the reinforced blockade imposed by the United States in recent months and start building casino-hotels like mushrooms in autumn.
What has changed? I can only think of one thing: Beijing.
Although we have few data, the ones that have leaked from the Xi-Trump meeting are enough. If anything was clear, it is that Taiwan is a red line for China. “Don’t touch that,” Xi told him. And Trump didn’t say a word. In fact, the arms sales committed to Taipei are up in the air, pending a presidential decision that has yet to materialize.
It is therefore legitimate to speculate that perhaps the next thing came in the form of a gracious concession from the Chinese president, recognizing Washington’s sphere of influence: “America is your thing, Donald, (although we will see about the raw materials)”. But for now, the agreement is there. If the businessmen accompanying Trump achieved their commercial objectives, which is likely, then the ticket was saved and everyone returned home happy.
So let’s go back to Cuba. How much time is left? Little. Will we talk about democracy or human rights? Next question. Will there be a military invasion? It won’t be necessary. Will the electricity supply return to the island? Yes, that for sure. Will the lives of Cubans improve? No, just as the lives of Venezuelans have not improved. Will the regime change? Not likely (see the corresponding chapter of ‘Delcy the sweet’). And then? Then that: we will make a lot of money and American tourists will be able to drink all the mojitos they want on the beaches of Varadero and, of course, in the mythical Hotel Nacional, which we could already start changing the name to Trump National Hotel, if everything goes as the real estate developer expects.
Since we are talking about beaches and hotels. Do you know how many hotels from Spanish companies are currently operating in Cuba? More than 50 establishments belonging to 10 chains: NH (1), Valentí (1), Hotusa (1), H10 (2), Blue Bay (2), Globalia (2), Barceló (2), Roc (3), Iberostar (10) and Meliá (29). Curiously, an analysis by Meliá claimed a few years ago that “the ‘neutral effect’ of Trump allowed the trend of American travelers to continue growing.” It was 2017. Almost 10 years have passed and Trump is not the same. He is even worse. Good luck.