International tourism has been one of the great strengths of the Spanish economy in recent years. After the recovery following the pandemic, the sector has once again recorded very high figures for arrivals and spending and has reinforced its role as a driver of activity, employment, and income generation in much of the territory.
However, this leadership position coexists with a major structural challenge: climate change. Spain is a very competitive destination due to the richness of its offerings, the quality of its infrastructure, and the breadth of its tourist calendar, but a significant part of its appeal still relies on climatic conditions that are changing rapidly. In this context, it is important to understand how tourists react to extreme thermal experiences to anticipate risks and opportunities for the sector.
The research from CaixaBank Research, based on anonymized data from payments made with foreign cards and climate information, points to an increasingly visible relationship between climate change and tourist behavior. According to the study, tourists who experience episodes of exceptional heat during their stay show a lower willingness to return to Spain compared to those who enjoy weather conditions closer to normal.
In the most extreme cases, the probability of repeating the destination can be approximately 15% lower. Furthermore, those visitors who do decide to return tend to modify their choices to avoid high temperatures, opting for milder times of the year or destinations with better thermal conditions.
The results suggest that travelers’ adaptation does not necessarily imply abandoning Spain, but rather a reconfiguration of their preferences within the national tourist market itself. Thus, international visitors maintain a high loyalty to certain vacation models, although they show a growing inclination towards cooler coastal municipalities, mountainous areas, or destinations situated at higher altitudes.
Record number of tourists today, climate challenge tomorrow
For CaixaBank Research, these trends demonstrate that climate change is beginning to influence not only environmental management but also the competitiveness of one of the country’s main economic engines. Spain continues to record record figures for international tourist arrivals and spending, but the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat episodes could become a determining factor for visitor loyalty in the medium and long term.
In light of this scenario, the report emphasizes the need to accelerate adaptation measures that preserve the quality of the tourist experience. Among them, improving thermal comfort in accommodations and public spaces, expanding shaded areas, enhancing energy efficiency, and diversifying activities to reduce dependence on climatic conditions stand out.
However, the study arrives at a time when international tourism continues to show remarkable strength. According to the latest official data, Spain received 9.7 million international tourists in June, 2.9% more than in the same month of 2025. In the first half of 2026, arrivals increased by 4.6%, nearing 46.6 million visitors. By source markets, the United Kingdom remained the main country of origin, with nearly 2.3 million tourists in June, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. Germany contributed 1.2 million visitors, 5.9% less than a year earlier, while France recorded nearly one million tourists, with a decrease of 1.7%. These figures reflect that Spain maintains its appeal as one of the major international tourist destinations. However, the results of the CaixaBank Research analysis indicate that the future evolution of the sector will increasingly depend on its ability to adapt to the effects of climate change and preserve the quality of the visitor experience in a context of increasingly extreme temperatures.
